venerdì 9 novembre 2012

How to follow the US election on the BBC



Barack Obama and Mitt Romney
The US presidential election is taking place, with more than 100 million Americans casting their votes.
The BBC is bringing viewers and listeners comprehensive coverage across TV, radio and online, both in the UK and around the world.
You can keep up to date with the latest results, analysis and interviews using your mobile phone or by following us on social media.

What happens when

Traditionally the overall result emerges between 0300-0700 GMT (2200-0200 Eastern Standard Time) but in a tight races like that in 2000, it can be a lot later.

How close is the vote?

Two pundits prepared to stick their neck out and predict results in the swing states both foresee a win for Barack Obama. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball gives Obama 290 electoral college votes - 20 more than the 270 required to win - while Nate Silver at the New York Time's FiveThirtyEight blog envisages Obama taking 307 votes.
There are conservative pundits who predict quite the opposite. One, Dick Morris, a former Democrat, foresees Mitt Romney picking up 325 electoral college votes. George Will of the Washington Post, puts Romney on 321. Meanwhile, from the liberal camp, Josh Marshall's Talking Points Memo puts Obama on 303.
A handful of websites that choose not to predict a result in "toss-up" states see a small advantage for Obama. The New York Times and the Washington Post both think Obama is able to rely on at least 243 electoral college votes, compared with 206 for Romney. Charlie Cook gives Obama 237 to Romney's 191, while Real Clear Politics leaves a full 146 electoral college votes in the toss-up category, with Obama on 201, and Romney on 191.
The first polls close in Kentucky and Indiana at 2300 GMT (1800 EST), and Alaska closes last at 0500 GMT (0000 EST) on Wednesday. Each state is "called" some time after the polls close - these are projected results based on exit poll data and partial vote counts.
Presidential elections are run using an electoral college. Each state is given a number of votes based on its population. The candidate who wins 270 electoral college votes becomes president.
Because many states are solidly Republican or Democratic, the race is often determined by swing or battleground states, which take longer to count. The key battleground states to watch for are:
  • Florida: Has 29 electoral college votes; polls close at 0100 GMT (2000 EST)
  • Ohio: Has 18 electoral college votes; polls close at 0030 GMT (1930 EST)
  • Virginia: Has 13 electoral college votes; polls close at 0000 GMT (1900 EST)
  • Wisconsin: Has 10 electoral college votes; polls close at 0200 GMT (2100 EST)
  • Colorado: Has nine electoral college votes; polls close at Colorado 0200 GMT (2100 EST)
  • Iowa: Has six electoral college votes, polls close at 0300 GMT (2200 EST)
  • New Hampshire: Has four electoral college votes, polls close at 0100 GMT (2000 EST)
If the battleground states with the most electoral college votes all swing towards the same candidate, the overall result could be called early on in the night.

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